I find myself drawn to the principles of Cliodynamics as I reflect on contemporary events, such as the significance of Trump’s re-election and regime changes afoot in France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and South Korea. The map of the entire Middle East is being redrawn after Israel morphed from an injured cornered animal to become a regional power with the potential to disrupt the world power balance.

Cliodynamics is the application of a dynamical systems approach to the social sciences in general and the study of historical dynamics in particular. More specifically, in End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, Peter Turchin defines Cliodynamics as an area of research that integrates cultural evolution, economics, macro sociology, and mathematical modeling of historical processes to explain the rise and fall of empires, population booms and busts, and the spread and disappearance of religions.

In my interpretation, the pendulum's swing causes kinetic energy to convert to potential energy and capital to cede power to labor. This cyclical phenomenon is often marked by a clear tipping point akin to the decline of the progressive woke movement following Donald Trump's election.

History, indeed, is defined by signature tipping points: Hans Christian Andersen’s 1837 fairy tale The Emperor’s New Clothes; the 1914 assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand that started WWI; the Army Council, Joseph Welch’s televised question to Senator Joseph McCarthy, “Have you no sense of decency, sir?”; Ronald Reagan's ultimate campaign question, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

Turchin then posits that “When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable.” Looking back, I recognize the political pendulum had, indeed, swung too far to the left with Defund the Police, Black Lives Matter, California’s legalization of theft under $1000, up through such inanities as debates about the placement of tampons in boy’s bathrooms.

It is more important to focus on the forest than the trees. While nobody has a corner on truth, it is important to pay attention to the pendulum's swings.

— Sina.