Get close enough to the trees, and we miss the forest. It is hard to recognize history in the making, to separate the signal from the noise, or watch the hinge in history turn on its axis.

Imagine you were born in the year 1900 and had no idea how the 20th century would unfold: WWI starts on your 14th birthday and ends on your 18th while 22 million perish. Spanish Flu hits the planet, runs through your 20th, leaving 50 million dead. You experience the Great Depression on your 29th, with a 25% rate of unemployment and a 27% drop in GDP. WWII starts on your 41st, and 75 million perish before it ends on your 45th. At 50, you experience the Korean War with 5 million dead. The Vietnam War begins at 55 and ends at age 75 with 4 million dead. The Cuban Missile Crisis hits on your 62nd ……..

So what signals should we look for now to see what’s ahead? As a student of history and philosophy, and having lived through a revolution and multiple recessions, I look for a combination of the following four factors:

Shiva at work, destroying the old dysfunctional system through wars, pandemics, natural disasters, or failed states. 

Inflation caused by throwing money at the problem hoping to lessen the impact. Inflation is the legal way for the rich who have assets, to rob the poor who only have their labor. Think Weimar Republic’s hyperinflation of 1923. Notice how easily our Government passes Trillion Dollar budgets and programs.

Bloodletting. If things are not working, it must be somebody’s fault. Race riots, Lynchings, and Pogroms are how societies vent their reptilian anger and hatred. One day the Germans were at the pinnacle of art, science and music, and the next day they were burning millions in ovens. Think Tulsa a hundred years ago this week, Kristallnacht in 1933, or Baghdad in 1941. 

Technology is what saves the day, closes the loop, and catapults us to the next chapter. Think Steam Engine of the 1800's to recover from the Revolutionary War; Continental Railroads of the 1900's to recover from the Civil War; and jet aviation and nuclear power of the last century to recover from WWII.

Those who have studied The Fourth Turning can recognize the above conditions present today: A global pandemic amidst a power struggle between the U.S. and China. Borrowing Trillions of Dollars against the future of our children to pump into the economy today, while our Government tells us inflation is stable at 2.4%. Jews, blacks and Asians being attacked in our streets, serving as canaries in the mine. Massive technological innovations like Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing, Blockchain and Crisper dramatically changing our lives, hopefully for the better.

As Bob Dylan says, “the times they are a changin.”