As the greatest economic, military, and scientific power in the world, America may be immune from outside threats but remains vulnerable to internal failure, whether it be our current cultural civil war or the result of some longer-term protracted political stalemate. The traditional image of America as a melting pot of cultural, religious, and ethnic identities now looks more like a mixed salad.

The events of the past month, starting with the June 27th presidential debate, on to Trump’s attempted assassination, Biden’s better-late-than-never decision to drop out of the race, and Kamala Harris’ near-instant coronation as a new Democratic nominee are breathtaking events our country is still striving to process.  Meanwhile, the rest of the world is on the precipice of what could become a third world war.

The fact that neither party has embraced an open convention will certainly translate to a hollowed-out political middle, meaning that the country will lean too far to the right or the left. Fortunately, the Federal Government, with its nearly three million employees, will provide some needed ballast during this transition regardless of which party comes to power.

In light of the above, the question remains, where do we go from here, and what does the future hold?

As an optimistic realist, I am long on America and believe we can get through this difficult phase too. So instead of buying into America’s past sins, ala Howard Zinn’s People’s History of the United States, or focusing on Samuel Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations, I choose to focus on the theory put forth by demographer and historian Neil Howe and William Strauss that history is cyclical and that every 80 to 100 years, America experiences cycles of crisis and upheaval that lead to a so-called “fourth turning.”

Countries, like people who may become ill and recover, are likewise subject to economic and political cycles. For perspective, it is worth noting that America has been at it for 248 years and survived 46 tumultuous presidential elections. Then, take the time to read a summary of The Fourth Turning to learn about cycles: Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.

— Sina.