MEMBER MONDAY

The replacement fertility level -- the average number of children needed to be born per woman in order to maintain ongoing generational levels -- is roughly 2.1. Fewer than that translates to a shrinking population, absent immigration. This Member Monday we'll address the philosophical questions that arise by means of a thought experiment in which the actual rate were to drop to zero.

As far as existential crises go, this one is kinder, gentler. No doom porn here. View this exercise simply as a way to tease out one's sense of life and its meaning. We may start out at the more surface level e.g the climate change anxieties now become somewhat secondary, the on-going threat of wars and the attendant mass destruction likewise fade in context. This so-called infertility scenario in many ways suggests a refreshingly different perspective on the traditional parade-of-horribles. One may even embrace a world where our day-to-day existence is (perceived to be) less burdened by those conventional existential threats.

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You've solemnly made the exact same pledge more than a thousand times. All the way from the age of five through at least middle school you'd start the school day by pledging your allegiance to the flag and to the Republic for which it stands -- to the Republic, mind you. Our discussion will center around what that means in the context of what passes for politics today,

Francis Bellamy's choice in 1892 of the word Republic in the Pledge most certainly reflected Plato's philosophical devotion to the basic ideals of good government. For our purposes, however, we will avoid an extensive discussion about America's current system, sometimes also referred to as a representative democracy, and the way it bridges the sometimes tricky distinction between a pure Republic (sovereignty vested in the people themselves) versus a pure democracy (sovereignty vested in the whole body). Rather, we'll focus on certain observations and concerns on the part of Plato, author of The Republic (focus article, Why the West Needs Plato).

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By some reckonings, the election of 2016 was by and large theater acting out that darkest and most dangerous human impulse i.e. revenge. And, as implied by our focus article ( Who Can Win America's Politics of Humiliation?), failure to truly appreciate that underlying dynamic may set the stage for the next play. The essence of Friedman's column is encapsulated in his paragraph four which reads in its entirety, "It has been obvious ever since Trump first ran for president that many of his core supporters actually hate the people who hate Trump, more than they care about Trump or any particular action he takes, no matter how awful."

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It has been called the grandmother test i.e. your understanding of a concept is best demonstrated by your ability to successfully explain it to your grandmother. I am pleased to serve as both your facilitator and grandmother as we gather to discuss a subject that is both vitally important and (to some) devilishly obscure: monetary policy and its role in a divided America.

This introduction may come across as cheeky, overwrought, and irreverent but it stems from the sincere desire to better understand monetary policy through a substantive discussion of the following thesis: yet another devolution in our monetary system looms (furthering the move from a free-market to a nationalized economy) should the Federal Reserve successfully implement its central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiative.

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It just doesn't belong, not here, not now. The spring pandemic was simply not meant for these post-industrial times -- maybe something more appropriate to the Middle Ages. But here we are. A cannibal joined the family picnic and calmly started eating the children.

The overarching question as we address this uninvited guest is the extent to which the world has been and will be shaped not only by the pandemic itself but, perhaps even more so, by the manner in which we choose to respond.

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Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking Glass features this telling exchange between Alice and Humpty Dumpty over the meaning of a word in which Alice says, "I don't know what you mean by 'glory,'" to which Humpty Dumpty answers "Of course you don't -- till I tell you . . . when I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less" to which Alice responds, "The question is whether you can make words mean different things -- that's all" to which Humpty Dumpty closes down the exchange with, "The question is which is to be master -- that's all"

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Viewed some sixty years later, my middle school educational experience seemed grey, tedious, and flat-out uninspiring. Just one single factoid survived all these intervening years i.e. the three styles of the ancient Greek pillars, you know, the Doric, Ionic and the other one. Yet, for some reason, what sticks to this day are the assigned short stories e.g. The Tell-Tale Heart, Leiningen Versus the Ants, The Most Dangerous Game, The Gift of the Magi.

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"A Republic, if you can keep it"

Ben Franklin 9/17/1787, when asked what kind of government he had given us.

Check your own reflex when it comes to the actions in Portland (and elsewhere) as you compare and contrast two points of view:

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The ease with which one's soul can be hijacked by a force or movement deemed greater than one's self was the subject of MM (5/1/17)/Cults. One of our own club members described the vulnerability on the part of most anyone looking for some sense of purpose and belonging. The seduction can end with the physical, mental or an emotional breakdown of the subject.

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It was thirty nine months ago. Thirty nine months ago we addressed the book The Fourth Turning. It might just as well have been thirty-nine years ago. Or thirty-nine decades for that matter. It would make little difference given the subject matter does not concern itself with linear time. The Fourth Turning is all about the grand cycles that have defined the evolutionary patterns of Anglo-American history over the past five centuries.

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Never has the City Club's unwavering commitment to truth and justice been more important than during this time of societal unrest. The issues of white privilege and race have both been bluntly faced in previous Member Monday sessions and is the subject of our next gathering. If there is one bedrock principle it is that of justice and accountability, whether past, present or future, whether skin color is black or white, and whether clothes happen to be jeans or a uniform. We believe this to be our real common ground and is the essence of the two introductory videos below:

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Public pronouncements by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) so often come across as some zen koan, like what's the sound of one hand clapping or describe your face before your mother and father were born. Alan Greenspan began the fine art of riddle-speak as Fed chair ('87-'06) -- see how many simple declarative sentences you can find amidst his nineteen years of testimony -- laying the groundwork for successors Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell.

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The pandemic has endowed state Governors with God-like power: who dies, who lives, and under what conditions. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, when confronted with the question of human life in the context of lifting the mandatory pandemic lockdown, declared, "To me, I say the cost of a human life is priceless. Period." Others, residing this side of the metaphysical curtain, might qualify such an absolute by invoking that old tagline and say, yes, yes, but for everything else there's Mastercard. Governor God turned cost accountant.

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Amidst the stresses of the current pandemic comes this one extraordinary opportunity -- the chance to Know Thyself (and others). It's as if our whole lives have been one long civics class and this is our final exam. Times as extreme as these launch otherwise broad philosophical textbook abstractions into the real world -- the world of lockdowns, social distancing, maybe mandatory testing. Let's suspend judgment for the moment and just look upon this as one big Rorschach test.

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Such unprecedented existential threats we're facing today! What are you talking about? What do you mean by what am I talking about ?!? -- well, just look around . . . . see everything from the pandemic to the economy to the climate to all the corruption and insider dealing to all the foreign threats to the . . . . just look -- right now! -- at the Murder Hornet invasion of the Northwest . . . we're on the precipice I tell you! Oh, stop the drama, we're always on the precipice -- it's called the future.

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Perhaps the contemplation of life is best viewed in hindsight. Take education. Early on, still in the nest, students might learn, think, and write about essentially abstract concepts. Sophomores (literally, "wise fools") still in the nest, might churn out philosophical papers, often parroting the works of others, without the benefit of any real life experience. Maybe a bit presumptuous.

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Surely no statute of limitations, legally-speaking or otherwise, should apply when it comes to the public's interest in certain matters. Some truths unfold only with the passage of time.

We'll set the table with two examples. It was not until many years thereafter that the public really understood the degree to which it had been (intentionally) misled in order to garner its initial support of that national hallucination known as Vietnam (MM 9/25/17, click Vietnam). Then, the so-called war on drugs, having become a classic cure-far-worse-than-the-disease, was itself born out of a cynical ploy to accomplish other ends (see the years-later deathbed confession of John Erlichman that the Nixon White House's drug war was a way to provide a cloak of legitimacy around its attacks on blacks and hippies, MM 9/26/16, click War On Drugs). The common elements: lack of transparency; undisclosed agenda; engineered public perception.

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Of all the phenomena upended by the still-unfolding pandemic experience, surely economics would have to appear near the top of the list. Economics has indeed been a Member Monday topic before -- three years ago we discussed the role of capitalism in the context of resource constraints, global interdependence, deepening income disparity, regulatory capture, and a distorted monetary system. Covid-19 has now launched us into an altogether new dimension.

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