A Crisis Mistaken for a Cure

“How easy it is to make people believe a lie, and how hard it is to undo that work again.” Twain’s quote aptly describes America in 2025, where many mistake spectacle for strength. Trump has sold Americans the illusion of economic power and geopolitical dominance, but the recent Highland Club OpEd suggesting that Trump may be the person to address the worldwide crisis, symbolic of the Fourth Turning, is laughable.

Preliminarily, Trump’s ongoing assaults on democratic institutions and the rule of law eclipse any discussion of his foreign policy agenda. When the foundations of constitutional governance are at stake, other considerations must necessarily take second place. Notwithstanding, the OpEd ignores the reality of the last six months.

Economically, the U.S. Dollar Index has plunged 10–11% since Trump's inauguration—a decline not seen since the 1970s. Trump’s idiotic tariff policies, inhumane expulsion actions, and hypocritical deficit spending have destroyed market confidence and infected the US tourism industry (estimated to decrease $50 billion in 2025).

The same incompetence is playing out in foreign relations. The Alaska summit truly illustrated “The Art of the Kneel,” wherein Trump walked in wanting a cease-fire and walked out capitulating to Putin’s delay tactics. Meanwhile, China is quietly dismantling U.S. economic leverage by diversifying trade toward Europe, Africa, and Asia, and reducing reliance on the dollar. Given this loss in credibility, Trump’s impotence in securing the return of Israeli hostages and ending the suffering in Gaza is not surprising.

Twain also quipped, “All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence, and then success is sure.” And that is why Trump is President. The Fourth Turning predicts a period of upheaval and conflict during which society faces existential challenges. Trump is not the remedy for these challenges; he is the source of them.