From WWII to Cold War II

The downside to seventy-five years of relative peace and prosperity is the temptation to take such peace for granted. That sense of entitlement tends to undercut its permanence or, as Nietzsche puts it, ”Under peaceful conditions, a warlike man sets upon himself.”  

America is at war with itself, as evidenced by such cultural battle lines as who gets to use which bathroom. Overseas, the British are struggling with the fallouts of Brexit and Covid, while the Germans have painted themselves into a corner by their dependence on America for defense, Russia for energy, and China for trade.

We could talk ad nauseam about the merits of diplomacy, but with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China island-hopping from Hong Kong to Taiwan, Iran aiming nukes at Israel, and North Korea pointing nukes at us, the stark truth is that we are at war, whatever we may call it and whether or not we like it.

The underlying premise of “The Fourth Turning” is that human evolution has proceeded in 80-year cycles, each cycle characterized by an upward spiral that requires the death and destruction of the previous cycle, whether it be by war, famine, or a pandemic, as it clears the path to the inevitable re-birth.

In light of the above, rather than characterize what we are experiencing as a Cold War, we can see it as a competition for global leadership i.e. a “human race.”  Such a connotation not only takes away the lose-lose proposition of a shooting war unfolding in Ukraine, but it also acts as a good reminder of America’s forty-year winning track record when it came to its previous cold war with the USSR. 

I remain confident America will win this global competition as well, not just because we happen to have more advanced technology, or because the Dollar is currently the global reserve currency, but because of her compelling freedoms and soft power. These qualities are evident by the fact that our border issues revolve around the pressures of people literally dying to get in, rather than dying to get out. To that point, one may note China’s government fears its own people to such an extent that Beijing’s internal security budget is growing faster than its huge national defense budget. 

This week I noted two subtle but significant events that rekindled my faith in America: the unprecedented landslide vote to oust three far-left nonsensical San Francisco school board members; and NY Mayor’s common-sense determination that the subway system is meant for safe transportation, not a homeless shelter.

— Sina.

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