War and Global Recession

Last week, President Trump reportedly finalized his draconian tariff plan just hours before his Rose Garden announcement, rattling global markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. deployed two aircraft carriers—USS Harry S. Truman and USS Carl Vinson—to the Middle East to bolster security in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.

No one truly knows what Trump is thinking—but two things are clear. First, Iran’s theocratic regime, which calls Israel “a one-bomb nation,” must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. Second, America can no longer sustain multi-trillion-dollar deficits. With nearly $8 trillion in short-term debt coming due, today’s interest rates risk triggering a stagflationary spiral. It seems Trump thinks if war is the price to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions and an induced recession is the cost to reset the global order—so be it.

Since 1979, when Iran’s clerical regime held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days, it has been a persistent adversary—arming Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime in a campaign to encircle Israel in a “ring of fire.” No superpower worthy of the name should allow that to stand.

America’s ~$40 trillion national debt is a ticking time bomb. Interest rates must fall by any means, including a deep recession, if we are to refinance our obligations. Yet no one—except the so-called madman in the White House—seems willing to confront this reality.

The pitchforks come out when the top 1% own more than 95% of the world’s wealth, when a debt-saddled college grad is lucky to land a barista gig, when global trade is broken, and our adversaries challenge our dominance. With AI and cryptocurrencies poised to disrupt and reinvent industry and finance, we now stand on the threshold of collapse—and rebirth. A reset is coming. Think of it as a Jubilee.

As Ecclesiastes reminds us, “To everything there is a season… a time to break down, and a time to build up.” The reckoning is near. The rebuilding will follow.

— Sina.