The history of man in general, and that of the Middle East in particular, is marked by a series of constant wars. Since the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire’s 600-year reign, especially after World War II, the map of the Middle East has resembled a bloody Monopoly board.
Yet, two years after the October 7, 2023, massacre of 1,200 Israelis and the taking of 250 hostages by Hamas, a narrow door to peace appears to have opened. Israel and Hamas have begun indirect talks in Egypt on a U.S.-backed plan that links a ceasefire to a phased hostage–prisoner exchange, Hamas’s disarmament, and a new governance arrangement for Gaza. The plan is imperfect and fragile, yet real.
Fighting the longest war in its short history on seven fronts, Israel’s strategic picture has shifted. Hezbollah has suffered heavy losses and leadership decapitation, while Lebanon is haltingly bringing all arms under state control. Syria’s post-Assad transition has weakened Iran’s corridor to the Mediterranean. Peace in Gaza would further blunt Tehran’s “ring of fire” and strengthen Israel both militarily and economically…
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