04.13.20 | A Post-Pandemic World

Tomorrow today will be yesterday. What we are facing now is history in the making. Journalists like to point out that news is history's first draft. 

Such first drafts, often overloaded with detailed accounts of the then-present, eventually fade as events are put into greater context. It's been that way with all such events, small and large, just as it is now with Covid-19. The 1918 Spanish influenza is remembered mostly in terms of statistics, a few grainy pictures, and a smattering of stories about long-forgotten individuals. One imagines how historians a hundred years hence will likewise remember the events of today.

Of course, we can only engage in speculation at this point. Such speculation need not be rampant, however. Apart from the understanding of the present we have the past to help guide us, not only with respect to cited events but also as to historic patterns. People are people, an observation that's more than some trite tautology but fundamental to an appreciation of where we are and where we might be going. That was a lesson we learned in our discussion of The Fourth Turning  (MM 3/20/17 The Fourth Turning) i.e. history creates generations, just as generations create history.

Our upcoming discussion will be informed by our collective understanding of where we are, how we got here, and how previous cycles might guide us. Given inevitable life contingencies, however, no one is suggesting we can address the future with absolute precision -- that would rank up there with the impossibility to solve for four unknowns with only three simultaneous equations.  Maybe the best we can do is to judge the anticipated goodness/badness of today's circumstance in the same way we might see any other major event i.e. maybe yes, maybe no, we'll see (MM 6/10/19 We'll See). Consider this, at best, as our stab at pondering the second draft of history.

The breadth of the topic -- anticipating a post-Covid-19 world -- invites us to divide the subject into components. Our discussion article ( The Coronation ) is a splendid look at so many of the moving parts. This comprehensive piece (20 pages) is best read in its printed version, allowing for leisured contemplation. Our upcoming discussion is intended to be the first in a series of topics, allowing us to chew on these chosen bite-sized subtopics. Among the topics we may decide upon during this first session (in no particular order) are:

Climate Change: This is a bright spot in the otherwise foreboding climate topic we'd discussed in two previous sessions. The effect may be fleeting but it's still heartening to witness the temporary, yet quite evident, offset to man's negative influence on the planet -- to wildlife, pollution, global warming itself.          


Special Interests: One lesson we'd picked up from the '08 financial crisis was the manner in which special interests managed to elevate their positions to the detriment of the general populace. Rahm Emanuel's famous quip, "you never let a serious crisis go to waste" begged the question, Yes, but for whom? Drastic income/wealth disparity, as one example, emerged from that earlier crisis. We learned the hard way that, in a society governed passively and with free elections, organized greed always defeats a disorganized democracy.  Will we be on guard to assure that, this time, the cure is not worse than the disease?

Technology: We'd previously addressed both sides of rapid technology advancement, from its role in enhancing productivity while, at the same time, furthering the potential rise of authoritarianism and threatening individual privacy. Both sides have been on display of late -- even as it enables telemedicine, remote jobs and education, it allows for the intrusive monitoring of the individual.

Monetary/Fiscal Policy: The federal reserve has engaged in monetary policy initiatives having astounding implications even given the seriousness of the pandemic threat they were meant to address. The fed had expanded its balance sheet in the then-shocking amount of roughly $800 Billion during the '08 financial crisis and has now embarked on further expansion in two increments of $2 Trillion each on the way to a cumulative $6 Trillion. This could be a major topic in its own right given the subject's complexity (actually unnecessarily so) and the rather serious consequences it portends, including what appears to be a de facto merger of the fed and the Treasury into one gigantic hedge fund. On the other hand, there have been few thoughtful policy initiatives on the fiscal front (Congress).

Anyway, the above represents items of potential discussion, more relevant than ever, given the severity of the times and the ripeness for certain fundamental re-sets. We may also think in terms of how Member Monday may evolve into a more action-oriented body. Otherwise we're just barking at the moon.