Putin's Power Play?

Putin to western Europe: Who's my Bitch.

By most accounts, Putin's war is not going to his liking. Yet, per our focus article (Fintan O’Toole: Vladimir Putin is losing his insane war on Ukraine, (thanks Mike Maloy)), his Ukrainian gamble is based on a perception of western weakness, that if push came to shove the rest of Europe could not endure an energy shutdown. Is he right? The answer may well test the limits of liberal democracy.

No one needs reminding that Ukraine's survival rests largely on the financial and military support of democratic governments, that Russia by and large controls Europe's energy supply, and that a liberal democracy rests on the support, or at least the tolerance, of its electorate . . . and that winter is looming.

Winter, as we know, has long been a Russian tactical military ally, certainly on defense as Germany learned in 1943 Stalingrad. Now think in terms of offense -- how a desperate European citizenry in a month or so might respond to some Mafia offer -- be a shame to think about you with no energy, now again, what's Ukraine to you?

We may discuss the article's broader point concerning the way liberal democracies can be held hostage to repressive regimes (reference also the companion article appearing in the current Weekly) i.e. how an ongoing dependence on carbon fuels continues to draw us into the authoritarian orbit. As such, maintenance of a liberal democracy demands an ongoing strength, sacrifice, and a resolve that Putin is now testing.