(Any discussion about a great unwind must start with first pondering what it is exactly that’s being unwound. Consider this introduction to be simply the perspective of someone with a pocket calculator trying to make sense of where we are, how we got here, and where we might be going. Other perspectives are more than welcome to our discussion with the goal remaining enlightenment over argument.)
How we got here was the topic two years ago of MM 6/8/20 WTF: What The Fed i.e. how the Fed (the central bank originally established to act as the ultimate backstop lender to in times of a severe liquidity crisis) became empowered to create money. Despite the misleading name, the Fed was and is a private, not a federal government, institution. It (digitally and physically) "prints" money (called Federal Reserve Notes, just look at the back of your dollar bill) which shows up as a liability on its balance sheet.
This money is then applied to purchase various instruments which are reflected as assets on that same balance sheet. The lion's share of those assets are Treasuries (i.e. loans to the U.S. government) plus mortgage backed securities (which underpin traditional mortgages). For our purposes, the Fed has been the open market "whale" purchaser of both over the last dozen years.
That's really all you need to know when it comes to understanding the extraordinarily low interest rates that have prevailed until recently. Those massive purchases of Treasuries by the Fed had been the unnatural act driving the price of those instruments to lofty heights which, as we know (bond price is inverse to interest rate), translated to extraordinarily low interest rates (effectively zero). And it's these longer-term rates (rather than the frequently-published short term Fed Funds Rate) that count when it comes to corporate, government, and mortgage borrowings. That phenomenon was labeled “Quantitative Easing (QE).” So, what's the cost?…
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