The focus article (click: The Forces Of Chance) recounts an example of that capricious, unknowable, yet all-powerful force known as chance – the way a casual tourist visit to Kyoto led to the eventual sparing of that city from its incineration almost twenty years later in August 1945, or the way a momentary cloud clearing led to the destruction of Nagasaki a few days later (sparing “lucky Kokura”). As Melville wrote, “chance . . . has the last featuring blow at events.”
There seems to be an ongoing hubristic notion of man’s ability to tame, even domesticate, this world of contingency and probability. Perhaps impossible, it is submitted, in that we produce too many models that are often wrong and rarely useful. When we try to explain our social world, we foolishly ignore the flukes. Confidence in a predictable future “is the province of charlatans and fools.”
We’d last discussed man’s reach for probabilistic certainty in our MM 11/20/23 Free Will discussion, with the surface appeal of causality, and thus god-like foresight, by simply knowing the positions, direction, and velocity of every particle in Newton’s deterministic universe. Whoops. Confidence in that so-called Laplace predictive model went out with the introduction of quantum mechanics which shifted our world from determinism to indeterminism (cue, again, the charlatan quote)…
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