The Confidence Trap
Open my refrigerator door and you’ll find a container of loose batteries – lots of those AAs, some Cs and Ds, a smattering of AAAs and the little button ones for the remote – because everyone knows that their useful life is extended by cooler temperature. What, it’s not? So much for that childhood memory as it turns out the shelf life of alkaline batteries is not so affected. Another old wives’ tale debunked.
A small example, perhaps, but a good introduction to our focus piece which suggests the most dangerous thing in your head isn’t what you don’t know – it’s what you stopped questioning (click: The Knowledge You're Treating as Permanent That Has an Expiration Date). Wise words were these, It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so -- Mark Twain (maybe). Let’s start out with some “truths”:
The Chinese word for crisis is composed of the symbols for "danger" and "opportunity." False. The historical Buddha was fat. False. It is illegal to shout the word “fire” in a crowded theater. Misleading. The Great Pyramids of Egypt were constructed by slave labor. False. Listening to Mozart enhances intelligence. False. Sugar causes hyperactivity in children. False. The common cold is caused by cold. False. Isaac Newton was inspired to study gravity by an apple falling on his head. False/exaggerated. Marie Antoinette said "Let them eat cake." False. The United States Declaration of Independence was signed on July 4, 1776. Misleading. Albert Einstein failed grade school mathematics. False. Mussolini made the trains run on time. False/exaggerated. People use ten percent of their brain. False. Thomas Edison invented the light bulb, Thomas Crapper invented the flush toilet, James Watt invented the steam engine, Henry Ford invented the automobile and the assembly line, and Al Gore claimed to have invented the Internet. All False or Misleading. The Rolling Stones were performing “Sympathy For the Devil '' during the stabbing incident at 1969 Altamont Free Concert. False. Skinheads are all white supremacists. False. Cinco de Mayo is Mexico’s Independence Day. False. George Washington had wooden teeth. False. The Emancipation Proclamation freed all slaves in America. False/limited. Greek philosopher Pythagoras discovered the Pythagorean theorem. Misleading. Medieval Europeans believed the earth was flat. False.The Great Chicago Fire of 1871 was caused by Mrs. O'Leary's cow kicking over a lantern. False/apocryphal. Prohibition made the drinking of alcohol illegal. Partly true and context dependent. Orson Welles’s 1938 radio adaptation of H.G. Wells’s War of the Worlds caused widespread panic. Exaggerated. The dark side of the moon means it doesn't receive light. False. Half of body heat is lost through the head. False. A meteor’s heat upon entering the earth’s atmosphere is primarily caused by friction. Misleading. Tang, velcro, and teflon were off-shoots of technology developed by NASA. False/partly true. The sun is yellow. Misleading. Bulls are enraged by the color red. False. A wolf pack has an "alpha" male. Misleading. The Quran promises martyrs 72 virgins in heaven. Misleading/debated. Saint Augustine said, “God created Hell for inquisitive people.” False. Jesus was born on December 25. Doubtful/traditional. It brings to mind the line from the (S&G) song Kodachrome: “When I think back on all the crap I learned in high school, it’s a wonder I can think at all.” True.
The answer is to engage in an ongoing and rigorous knowledge expiration practice. The suggestion is to pick one domain every quarter — marketing, finance, management, health, technology – and ask yourself whether your long-standing belief in an area is still current lest you be a candidate for the Hiroo Onoda award – named for the Japanese soldier who continued to fight in the Philippine jungle for nearly three decades after the end of WWII refusing to believe the war had long been over.
Easier said than done, of course, as so many of us fall into the comfort of that confirmation bias, so easily glomming onto those bite-sized truisms while rejecting alternative explanations or perspectives. Be prepared, however, that your active curiosity might label you as some sort of a conspiracy theorist.
Case in point: we invited ourselves to take a hard look at the COVID crisis in MM 12/5/22 Pandemic Unmasked even as much of the narrative was unfolding with the focus article by a Brown professor and one-time champion of those draconian measures who essentially said those measures may have been “misguided,” sorry about that, let’s move on. More than three years on we have a Congressional report and recently declassified documents laying out our funding gain-of-function research at Wuhan, the lab-leak cover-up, the intelligence manipulation, and the retaliation against truth-tellers. And yet, there are many who still buy into the bat transmission story. That’s the confidence trap.
Let us self-identify target areas where a greater sense of curiosity might be warranted. Finance is a ripe target. Those (of us) in the hard money circle often cite the five thousand years during which precious metals have been the ultimate escape from the ravages of irresponsible fiat debasement. While that example might sound like so-called permanent knowledge, just heed the warning that the most dangerous phrase in finance is “this time is different.”
Meanwhile check with me if you need some chilled batteries.
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