Get close enough to the trees, and we miss the forest. It is hard to recognize history in the making, to separate the signal from the noise, or watch the hinge in history turn on its axis.
Imagine you were born in the year 1900 and had no idea how the 20th century would unfold: WWI starts on your 14th birthday and ends on your 18th while 22 million perish. Spanish Flu hits the planet, runs through your 20th, leaving 50 million dead. You experience the Great Depression on your 29th, with a 25% rate of unemployment and a 27% drop in GDP. WWII starts on your 41st, and 75 million perish before it ends on your 45th. At 50, you experience the Korean War with 5 million dead. The Vietnam War begins at 55 and ends at age 75 with 4 million dead. The Cuban Missile Crisis hits on your 62nd ……..
So what signals should we look for now to see what’s ahead? As a student of history and philosophy, and having lived through a revolution and multiple recessions, I look for a combination of the following four factors:
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