Between the Rock and the Hard Place

The once-in-a-generation tectonic shift in the dollar’s value, the global reserve currency, is bound to have unanticipated political and financial consequences we may be powerless to address.

In the name of fighting inflation in America, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, thereby creating global inflation by attracting foreign capital to the US seeking higher returns, resulting in the recent Euro/Dollar parity, a ~30% drop in the value of the British Pound, and a ~20% drop in the value of the Japanese Yen, not to mention the negative effects of our balance of trade with China as a result of the dollar trading at over seven Yuan.

Talking tough and acting like the second coming of Paul Volcker, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has suggested his impetus for raising rates is rooted in the need to tame the recent alarming inflation rate. This attempt is both disingenuous and dangerous because it ignores the fact that it was the Fed itself that created incipient inflation through its loose monetary policy over the past twelve years. The idea that inflation can be tamed in a meaningful way through tiny incremental interest rate rises is misguided as long as nominal rates are lower than the inflation rate…

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Sina Simantob Comment
An Invitation

America’s Founding Fathers, themselves flawed men, were nevertheless geniuses who recognized all men are flawed, and so they designed a system of government that featured legal checks on political power to minimize the potential damage wrought by bad leaders and fake Messiahs.

Our forefathers emigrated from Europe because their Churches and Kings denied them land and individual freedom, while in America one could claim all the land one could fence or cultivate while enjoying fundamental rights of protection from the State.

But now, after nearly 250 years, we are witnessing a troubled America with crowded cities, proliferating bureaucracies, high inflation, urban crime, and chaos at our Southern border, stained by the disgrace of Vietnam and Afghanistan losses. A closer look reveals a homeless problem that reminds us of Bombay, an expensive welfare system that does not work, public schools that can not teach, a biased news media that pawns editorials as news, and universities that suppress freedom of speech in the name of Wokeness…

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Sina Simantob Comment
Reinventing Ourselves, Again!

Highland, a 132-year-old historic landmark, has survived and thrived this long, not by resisting change, but by embracing it. Unlike the frog in the slowly boiling pot, we know when to jump.

As we now find ourselves in the midst of the Great Resignation, labor shortages, and what looks like pending Stagflation, once again we are forced to embrace change by making various adjustments to our operations, including the redesign of the club’s menu, pricing, and hours of service, to reflect the needs of our members better.

The marketplace has a way of clearly signaling perceived value and priorities by what it is willing to support. For the past six months, we have experienced sparse lunch attendance, especially by our younger members who have expressed their desire for expanded service hours so they can eat when they are hungry, and have options for simpler, quicker, and less expensive meals like sandwiches instead of gourmet entries, vegetarian over meat dishes, with emphasis on the social and communal aspect of lunch over the meal itself…

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Sina SimantobComment
Fate's Loaded Dice

We received a lot of feedback regarding last week’s introduction on the role of fate, and the importance of preparation over planning. To prove that fate is not always an obstacle, here are a few examples of how at times fate plays with loaded dice in favor of the underdog.

Most people know the story of Fred Smith, the founder of FedEx, gambling his last $30K in Vegas to meet payroll, or how Elon Musk got a $1.5 billion commitment from Nasa on Christmas eve, preventing SpaceX from declaring bankruptcy. So here is one of my favorite stories on the role fate plays unless you want to call it a miracle.

In the spring of 1967, Israel found itself surrounded by enemies bent on its imminent destruction. On May 14, Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser ordered a full mobilization of Egypt’s armed forces, declaring “Our basic objective will be the destruction of Israel.”…

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Sina SimantobComment
A Cosmic Joke

“If fate doesn't make you laugh then you don’t get the joke.” Shantaram

The Bible says God created the world in six days and rested on the seventh day. I assume God was bored on his day off so he entertained himself by watching humans make plans.

The Stoics believe control is an illusion fueled by the ego. “Nobody’s in control of nothin’.” Instead, chaos is the rule, and order is the exception…

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Sina SimantobComment
Back To Kansas

One need not be a Wizard to realize the recent miracle in Kansas, a red conservative state in the middle of the country, recently setting the national tone on the abortion issue by voting 59 to 41 against a measure that would have made abortion illegal in the state.

That state action underscores the intent of the Supreme Court’s recent Dobbs v. Jackson ruling. In overturning Roe v. Wade, the Court held that the U.S. Constitution does not confer any right to an abortion and, by overruling Roe, it was returning the regulation of abortion to the people and their elected representatives, adding Roe had been egregiously wrong and amounted to ”an abuse of legal authority.”

As such, the court took no position one way or another on the legalities of abortion and simply left such determination to the individual states…

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Sina SimantobComment
From Age-ing to Sage-ing

No matter how smart or hardworking one is, it still takes time to grow wise. It takes years of hard work to have overnight success. It takes nine months for a baby to gestate. It takes time for the fruit to ripen on the tree.

The Bible says that Moses, on his way to the Promised Land, got lost in the desert and wandered in the wilderness for forty years! How could that be?! The Sinai desert is so tiny that nobody could get lost there for that long!

The answer might lie in seeing this 40-year journey in metaphorical terms where the wilderness is internal, and the Promised Land is the acquisition of wisdom to address fundamental questions such as what is the meaning and purpose of my life? Perhaps the journey comes down to becoming the very sage we had been seeking…

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Sina Simantob Comment
On Marriage

In my 70 years on this planet, I have seen and done a lot, including a revolution causing me to abandon home and family, earning a living and fighting billion-dollar lawsuits, staying healthy and raising children; but the hardest thing I have ever done, by far, is to stay in a loving relationship for 46-years-and-counting. Like a drunken rodeo star striving to stay in the saddle, nearly 90% of the time I walk around emotionally wounded and in pain, but that 10% in the saddle makes it all worthwhile! No wonder 50% of marriages end in divorce.

This condition is not due to the fact I am easy and my partner hard to get along with, or vice versa. Instead, it is the nature of all relationships to be either too easy and maybe a bit boring, or too difficult and a bit hot. Think Elizabeth Tayler and Richard Burton. Think Frank Sinatra and Ava Gardner.

When things get tough, I consult Kahlil Gibran and re-read his poem On Marriage. Since last week’s topic was the valley of love, where one “abandons reason for the sake of love,” this week, let’s revisit marriage to remember what it takes to stay in a long-term healthy, and loving relationship…

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Sina SimantobComment
The Conference of the Birds

My favorite part of helping Dustin run City Club is meeting with and giving tours to prospective members and answering questions like: What’s the story behind the evil-looking chicken perched on top of the residences? For the benefit of our many new members, here is how I answered that question a few years back.

Nearly eight centuries ago, Persian Sufi poet Attar of Nishapur, a contemporary of Rumi, wrote a poem called “The Conference of the Birds”. In the poem, the birds of the world gather to decide who is to be their sovereign, as they had none. The hoopoe, the wisest of them all, suggested they should find the legendary Simurgh. The hoopoe leads the birds, each of whom represents a human fault that prevents humankind from attaining enlightenment.

The hoopoe tells the birds that they have to cross seven valleys in order to reach the abode of Simurgh…

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A Historic Fist Bump

Throughout man’s recorded history, the average length of an empire has been ~250 years.

When the President of the United States thinks a fist bump is a good diplomatic compromise between “I will not shake that man’s hand,” and the reality of needing Saudi’s oil even though America is capable of producing its own,” we know we have hit a new low.

Domestically, the consequences of the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol are still reverberating; inflation is raging at a near all-time high, and our country is divided along pro-life and pro-choice lines. Internationally, we are engaged in a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine; the Middle East is a tinderbox ready to explode, and China is challenging America’s global leadership on every front.

In light of the above, even the proponents of American Exceptionalism are questioning whether 246 years into it, our Democratic experiment is in the process of self-destructing….

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The Shia-Sunni Conflict

The point of President Biden’s visit to the Middle East this week is not to preach American moral principles to young Prince Mohammed Bin Salmon of Saudi Arabia, nor to cajole an additional two million barrels of oil per day in an effort to help lower inflation at home to bolster the Democrat’s chances in the midterm elections. Rather, the significance of President Biden’s historic visit is to determine America’s position regarding the 1400-year Shia-Sunni conflict.

After Profit Mohamed’s death, the question of Islam’s leadership split Muslims, the world’s second-largest religion with over two billion members, into two sects: the Sunni sect led by Saudi Arabia, and the Shia sect led by Iran.

Iran is close to developing a nuclear bomb and openly threatens to wipe Israel off the map. The Saudis, while certainly no friends of Israel, are smart enough to know Jews are always the first to go. Whoever comes after the Jews now, will eventually come after them later.

While President Trump has surely taken some foolish actions, his forging of the Abrahamic Accord was brilliant in that it changed the balance of power in the Middle East by making Saudi Arabia and Israeli reluctant allies…

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Sina SimantobComment
The Everchanging Highland Gardens

After the completion of Highland’s renovation in 1979, we started work on our gardens by planting a spruce sapling in the very center of the then-new garden. Over the past 43 years this tree grew to be 65’ tall, then this spring it was brought down by 100 mph winds.

Since then we have had many discussions regarding the function and future of the Highland gardens and how we should integrate this new space into our garden’s everchanging masterplan. These options included planting a new shade tree, permanently installing the Duality sculpture, transferring the bronze flower urn nearby, or designing and building a third fountain at Highland….

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July 4th. Independence Day

On July 4th, 1776, Congress formally adopted the Declaration of Independence, elegantly drafted by Thomas Jefferson, informing Britain that the American colonies desired to rule themselves.

But, as Theodore Roosevelt stated in 1910, “while in name we had a Declaration of Independence in 1776, we gave the lie by our acts to the words of the Declaration of Independence until 1865; and words count for nothing except in so far as they represent acts.”

Once again, like in the 1850s, and 1960s, the very fabric of American society looks threadbare. Once again, like Germany and Japan before them, Russia and China are challenging America’s global leadership.

Domestically, inflation is raging; the homeless live on the streets and under bridges; homicide rates and mass shootings are up dramatically; Supreme Court justices are targets of assassination, and as a result of the court overturning Roe vs. Wade, members of pro-choice “Jane’s Revenge” feel compelled to call for a “Night of Rage,” acting like the second coming of “The Weather Underground”.

Looking more like a lawless jungle than a country of law and order, crowds burn down a police precinct and the police flee, loot stores and get away with it, while prosecutors seem more concerned about the rights of the accused than the rights of their victims.

In light of the above, on this 246th birthday of our nation, we have to ask ourselves, is the American experiment finally unraveling, or is this another example of “its always darkest before dawn?” Are Presidents Trump and Biden the best America can offer, or are we still capable of producing leaders like Abraham Lincoln, FDR, and John Kennedy?

I would like to answer these questions by posing other questions: are we the good guys or the bad guys? Is America’s founding based on slavery or freedom? Should we celebrate America’s founding year as 1776 or 1619? If not the Shining City on the Hill, why are people dying to get into America?

Once again, let us celebrate America’s independence, and strive to make it a better place.

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Sina SimantobComment
Acting Presidential

Great leaders can emerge from diverse backgrounds including politics, military, law, farming, and business, so let’s see what lessons we can learn from two great leaders who started as actors.

President Ronald Reagon was a B-movie actor and spokesman for the General Electric Company. This role forced him to think through important social and political issues, write his own speeches, and broadcast them on his weekly radio talk show.

Reagan served two terms as Governor of California, and two terms as President of the United States. In 1980 he won 44 states to defeat President Jimmy Carter, and four years later won again in a landslide victory by taking 49 states.

The two pillars of Regan’s governing strategy were: the Soviet Union is an evil empire and must be defeated; our government has grown too big and must be cut in size to allow Americans more freedom to lead their lives.

Born into a Jewish family and educated as a lawyer, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky chose to become an entertainer and excelled as an actor, dancer, and comedian. His acting role as the Ukrainian President in a satirical TV serial called The Servant of the People catapulted him into a landslide victory by capturing over 73% of the votes cast in 2019.

Underestimating his opponent, on February 24th Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, setting the stage for another David vs. Goliath moment in history, or maybe a Haman vs. Mordechi situation that will set Russia back many generations, regardless of the outcome of the war. Zelensky’s quote at the outset of the war, “I don’t need a ride; I need more ammunition,” will go down in history as a great example of natural courage.

I want to draw two valuable conclusions from this comparison: 1) it is a mistake to judge others and underestimate our opponents, and 2) we create our own reality, so acting the part, and hoping to grow into it is as good of a strategy as any.

May our next leader be worthy of our trust.

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Sina SimantobComment
Fathers

Most of us love our fathers. As sons, we want to grow up to be like them, or not; and as daughters, we want to marry someone like them, or not. At the very least, our fathers provide us with the foundation to become the adults we wish to become.

Freud thinks we all have daddy issues, which he calls the Oedipus Complex. All humans are flawed and our fathers are no exception. They try, we try, and it’s still hard to have a healthy relationship. But at some point, we must leave the protective safety of the shade our fathers provide in order to see our own shadow and decide who we want to be, instead of living our father’s image of ourselves.

The Oracle foretold that Oedipus would kill his father and marry his mother. But do these enduring Greek tragedies, Shakspearian plays, and Freudian theories teach us anything valuable about the relationship with our fathers? Otherwise, why have they prevailed so long?

Many cultures and religions have ancient rituals to separate sons from their fathers and daughters from their mothers when they turn into adults sometime during their teen years. Learning to forgive and love our fathers, faults and all, is a prerequisite to forgiving ourselves and then learning to love ourselves. Ancestor worship is for our benefit, not for the benefit of our ancestors who are dead and gone!

Introducing religion and culture into this already complex issue makes being a good father that much harder. Until recently, being a good father meant siring children, protecting and providing, and maybe teaching them a trade, after which time we put them in God’s hands, hoping they will find their own way through life. But the recent helicopter parenting fad strives to do and be everything, including being our children’s best friend, therefore depriving them of the discipline and authority they need while growing up.

I can go on talking about loving, smart and flawed fathers; instead, I encourage you to read the brief book review of “My Dad The Deal Maker: The Adventures of Herbie Cohen.”

Happy Father’s Day.

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Sina SimantobComment
New World Order

“Only the dead have seen the end of war.” — Plato.

Since WWII, the World Powers have engaged each other indirectly through proxies in places like Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Iraq, and now Ukraine.

Congress recently approved a $54B “aid package” to Ukraine and persuaded Poland to give their Russian-made MIG jets to Ukraine in exchange for modern American F-16 jets. More importantly, American intelligence was directly responsible for the death of nearly a dozen Russian generals, and the sinking of Russia’s flagship.

While the West is sanctioning Russia in an effort to ruin its economy, Russia is blocking the export of energy to Europe, and basic foodstuff to the rest of the world, potentially causing famine and riots in Egypt, Iran, India, and Africa. Since a long-term war is not sustainable, and given that going nuclear is a lose-lose proposition, we posit that soon a second front to this war could open in the Middle East in which Israel would bomb Iran, further threatening the flow of oil to the West. Unlikely? Then consider the following:

– Since 1979, Iran has threatened to wipe Israel, aka little Satan, off the map.

– Iran is close to having an atomic bomb and the delivery system to hit Israel.

– Israel will have no choice but to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities like they did Iraq’s and Syria’s.

– For the past two weeks hundreds of thousands of Iranians have been protesting to vent their anger against a system that they consider to be corrupt, incompetent and oppressive.

– Iran’s proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yamin have tens of thousands of conventional missiles aimed at Israel.

– When President Obama drew a red line in Syria and failed to follow through, Putin moved in and now controls Syria’s airspace.

– Israel has finally secured the right to fly through Saudi Arabia’s airspace as a direct shortcut to Iran.

– The United States Air Force is practicing mid-air refueling techniques with Israel’s Air Force.

– The war’s second front could threaten the export of oil through the Persian Gulf, further damaging the Western economies.

The missing ingredient for Israel to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities is the actual bomb that can penetrate the 12’-thick slabs of poured-in-place reinforced concrete that protect Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.

While Israel does not have such a bomb, America does. The question is, how long before America, aka the Great Satan, finally decides to provide the spark to ignite a revolution that takes out the Ayatollahs and, in the process, further weaken Russia?

Might the delivery of this bunker-busting bomb to Israel be on Saudi Arabia’s demand list as a condition to increase their oil production during President Biden’s potential visit to Saudi Arabia?!

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The Future Of Work

Major events like a war, famine, pandemic, or natural disasters force us to alter the way we live, work, and interact with each other.

In less than a hundred years, America has evolved from an agrarian, to an industrial, service, and now a technological society. The recent pandemic changed the nature of work through the advent of WiFi, Cloud, and Zoom from one characterized by fighting traffic only to toil eight-to-five in an office, to a 24/7 virtual workspace accessible from anywhere in the world. The change has been so profound that today many tech-savvy workers would threaten to quit their jobs if their employers were to dictate the maintenance of “regular office hours.”

The physical workspace has likewise profoundly changed. Until the 1950’s, it featured only the bare necessities of electricity, heat, and indoor plumbing, with other features such as elevators and air conditioning considered luxuries.

Compare that with what’s deemed necessary today for a productive environment and you might recognize Highland at its finest: clean, organized and aesthetically pleasing spaces, filled with art, both indoors and outdoors; ready access to healthy and affordable food and exotic beverages; great coffee, and state-of-the-art, crazy-fast, secure fiber optic WiFi access.

Since its construction in 1891, Highland has strived to stay on the cutting edge of technology, whether as a school, an office, and especially now as a private social and business club. Over the three-day Memorial Weekend, a team of four highly trained IT professionals spent over a hundred hours to replace Highland’s IT infrastructure with state-of-the-art hardware and software to ensure that our members have access to the fastest and most secure internet anywhere in Boulder.

Think of Highland as a home away from home.

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Sina SimantobComment
Befriending Ourselves

We recently wrote about the art of making friends and posited that the best strategy for success is to be genuinely interested in others, instead of trying to convince others how worthy we are of their friendship.

That then begs the question, how do we befriend ourselves? How do we evolve in order to feel comfortable enough in our own skin, not just to tolerate, but truly enjoy spending time with ourselves, like ourselves and, yes, love ourselves?

We all have an animal self that is controlled by our reptilian brain, often acting as if “it’s a jungle out there: eat or be eaten.” We do what it takes to survive, but this so-called survival self is not usually our best Self.

With time, patience, and sufficient nurturing, we can learn to grow beyond our basic animal needs, connect with our mammalian brain, open our hearts, fall in love, and learn to enjoy love as much as we enjoy sex.

The Persian poet Rumi says there is yet another level of connection, to our higher self – at the spirit level, where we become one with the universe, like the droplet is to the ocean, like Yin and the Yang.

Seneca, the Greek Philosopher, wrote to a friend saying “a person who is a friend to himself is an aid to all mankind. They are kind. They are calm. They have empathy for themselves and for others. They aren’t desperate. They can quietly spend time alone. They don’t need to pull others down to lift themselves up. They can stand on the shoulders of giants, instead of stepping on their necks to secure advantage.”

It takes a lifetime to learn to befriend ourselves; it’s never too late to begin.

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Sina SimantobComment
Paper Dragon

Since America’s founding in 1776, the very fabric of our society has often seemed on the verge of unraveling, with Barbarians at the gate ready to eat our economic lunch, and/or prove that our messy democratic system of government is inferior to theirs.

Having crushed Germany and Japan during WWII, we saw the Soviet Union rise as our main challenger, get to space first, build an Iron Curtain, and target us with thousands of nuclear bombs. Fast forward, the USSR collapsed in 1991.

Next up, Japan stepped forward to show us how the pros do it by manufacturing cars and televisions more efficiently and economically. Well, 20-years of deflation and an aging population has dimmed that Rising Sun.

Recently Vladimir Putin tried to prove the West to be morally weak and NATO a paper tiger, by starting a war in Ukraine that will set Russia back for generations, regardless of the war’s final outcome.

Today, with China as America’s main competitor, folks once again are saying “this time it’s different.” Perhaps it’s time to keep in mind four factors why the Chinese Communist Party is headed for the same trash bin of history as the USSR:

– Xi Jinping, China’s President-for-life, recently called Vladimir Putin his “best friend in the world.” This friendship is costing China soaring energy and commodity prices, along with snarled supply chains that were already disrupted by pandemic lockdowns.

– Even as America offers the entrepreneurial and technological pathway for a South African immigrant to become the richest man in the world, China cracks down on its own technology sector, driving down the market cap of its 10 largest technology companies by $2 trillion in one year. Elon Musk is in the news every day; nobody hears from Jack Ma!

– While China’s property sector represents ~29% of its soaring GPD, Evergrande’s demise pricked that bubble, proving once again the folly of central planning giant ghost towns.

– Dictators may be able to control people, but not viruses. China’s zero-Covid policy, forcing nearly 400 million people to stay home for weeks, may go down in history as a massive failed health and economic policy.

Authoritarian systems invariably look strong and in full control, until they are not. Once America starts onshoring its industry, and as soon as the effects of China’s One-Child policy truly kick in, we will see the real failures of central planning i.e. that it has never worked in the past, and will not work in the future, no matter who the dictator happens to be or the perceived strength of their grip.

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Culture Wars

We posit that America’s founding fathers, all flawed white men, were geniuses nonetheless, evidenced by the fact that the system of government they designed, however imperfect, is still functioning after 245-years. No other country in the world can claim this!

Our system of government was separated into three branches: executive, legislative, and judicial such that the power and influence of each branch would be balanced by those of the others in response to the constant passage of time and changes in circumstances. While the Civil War may have been the ultimate test of our system, the Jan. 6 Capital Riot and the currently raging debate on abortion are reminders of the need to discuss, debate, and resolve such divisive cultural issues, rather than suppress or “cancel” them.

A 2020 Pew Research Center survey found a wider political divide in America on cultural issues than in many of the other rich countries surveyed. Though some may regard this phenomenon to be evidence of systemic weakness, at Highland Institute we think of culture wars, however divisive, in terms of a vaccine for a disease, providing a form of protection despite their possible harsh side effects. Or, said differently, that which does not destroy us makes us a stronger nation.

Challenges abound. Our country is divided, and Congress seems incapable of passing the laws we need to govern ourselves, forcing the Supreme Court to step in to settle these difficult cases, such as the desegregation of schools, interracial and gay marriage, and elimination of prayer in school.

However, fifty years after the Roe vs. Wade decision, the country is still torn between the right of a woman to control her own body and the right of an unborn child to life – a wound that does not seem to heal and is clearly in need of sunshine to do so.

Like the issue of slavery which divided our country between North and South, the topic of abortion has divided our States, with NY and California leaning pro-choice, Texas and Utah pro-life, forcing the other states to take sides. Such is the challenge to be addressed by our three branches of government. The process may be long and arduous until – suddenly – E Pluribus Unum!

We are not here to take sides, nor to give advice, but to simply warn that once again our country is divided, and to appeal to both our heads and hearts as we deal with this difficult issue. As a ray of hope, let’s remember that while America is still divided on the question of abortion, at least we never devolved into the likes of China with the colossal mistake of their One-Child policy wherein the State can impose abortion on an unwilling mother.

Our democratic process may seem clumsy and painful at times, but the alternative is worse.

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